American Survival Blog

Bailout be damned the economic meltdown orchestrated by the Democrats and Soros continue

From Fox Business:

The Dow celebrated the one-year anniversary of its all-time high by closing below the 9000 threshold for the first time since June 2003 and ending in the red for the seventh straight day.

The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression continues to engulf Wall Street, carving out 5,500 points from the index since last October, including 2,200 points over the past seven days alone.

The Dow Jones Industrial fell 678.91 points or 7.33%, to 8579.19, the broad S&P 500 dropped 75.02 points, or 7.62%, to 909.92 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 95.21 points, or 5.47%, to 1645.12. The consumer-friendly FOX 50 dropped 54.54 points, or 7.37%, to 685.16.

“Having an eight-handle on the Dow is a scary picture but it’s just representative of what we’ve seen over the last 10 trading days. It’s pretty scary business,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. “It’s just unheard of. We’re getting to that point where it’s impossible not to think we’re hitting a bottom.”

Thursday’s plunge came despite an absence of any major negative developments. Instead, the markets focused on the continued uncertainty of the credit crisis and fears the global economy will slide into a recession.

As has been the case for much of the past week, the markets fell off a cliff at the end of the day, with the Dow tumbling 500 points in the final hour.

“I think we’re in the middle of what is panicked selling,” Scott Wren, senior equities strategist at Wachovia, told FOX Business. “I don’t know if we’re at the moment of maximum pessimism, but I think we’re pretty close.”

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Time to start hoarding food, and some ammunition? From The New York Sun:

Major retailers in New York, in areas of New England, and on the West Coast are limiting purchases of flour, rice, and cooking oil as demand outstrips supply. There are also anecdotal reports that some consumers are hoarding grain stocks.

 At a Costco Warehouse in Mountain View, Calif., yesterday, shoppers grew frustrated and occasionally uttered expletives as they searched in vain for the large sacks of rice they usually buy.

“Where’s the rice?” an engineer from Palo Alto, Calif., Yajun Liu, said. “You should be able to buy something like rice. This is ridiculous.”

The bustling store in the heart of Silicon Valley usually sells four or five varieties of rice to a clientele largely of Asian immigrants, but only about half a pallet of Indian-grown Basmati rice was left in stock. A 20-pound bag was selling for $15.99.

The story goes on to detail the grumbling of people who don’t realize their support for “green” this or that (especially Ethanol) has led the world to the brink of starvation. There is much complaining about the current trend of of big box stores limiting purchases of rice and other staples. Then the survivalists chime in:

The curbs and shortages are being tracked with concern by survivalists who view the phenomenon as a harbinger of more serious trouble to come.

“It’s sporadic. It’s not every store, but it’s becoming more commonplace,” the editor of SurvivalBlog.com, James Rawles, said. “The number of reports I’ve been getting from readers who have seen signs posted with limits has increased almost exponentially, I’d say in the last three to five weeks.”

Spiking food prices have led to riots in recent weeks in Haiti, Indonesia, and several African nations. India recently banned export of all but the highest quality rice, and Vietnam blocked the signing of new contract for foreign rice sales.

“I’m surprised the Bush administration hasn’t slapped export controls on wheat,” Mr. Rawles said. “The Asian countries are here buying every kind of wheat.”

Mr. Rawles said it is hard to know how much of the shortages are due to lagging supply and how much is caused by consumers hedging against future price hikes or a total lack of product.

“There have been so many stories about worldwide shortages that it encourages people to stock up. What most people don’t realize is that supply chains have changed, so inventories are very short,” Mr. Rawles, a former Army intelligence officer, said. “Even if people increased their purchasing by 20%, all the store shelves would be wiped out.”

Panic inducing stuff. Speakng as a crazed survivalist myself (with the fallow blog to prove it) I say Rawles, a man who uses radical leftist websites to “prove” America’s on the verge of collapse,  isn’t over stating this one. Food shortages are real and even one season of corn crop lost here to trendy eco-nonsense has serious repercussions for the rest of the world.

I’m a free marketer but in this case Bush should be looking into some export caps, because the food shortages world wide will have a cascading effect as countries buy out our stock of food, causing more shortages and ultimately more chaos. If you’re going shopping stock up on long lasting foods you’ll be able to break out 4-8 months from now when shortages drive prices up beyond the ability of many to afford.

Me? I like my canned chicken breast, baked beans and canned fruit. But you’ll want a bigger variety, especially if you have kids. Beans are a good source of protein and most canned vegetables have a long enough shelf life to make storing them when they’re on sale easy.

Don’t panic, but be prepared.

Cross Posted at Red Alerts.

With the survivalist community increasingly based online, misinformation and panicky predictions of impending doom have the potential to spread faster than ever.

The “buy gold” phenomenon now sweeping the net is the best example of rumor based marketing aimed at vulnerable groups of people willing to accept sometimes preposterous claims due to their ideological or cultural views. Gold retailers are have been marketing their services to Americans by playing on the financial fear mongering of a left leaning MSM whose anti-Bush tax cut agenda is best served by convincing people that things are worse than they actually are.

Six years of propaganda, a chaotic middle east gearing up for World War III and China’s manipulation of world currency has substantially weakened the dollar, which is not all bad news by the way, though it does often make stock holdings more volatile. Congress demanded that credit be extended to poor people a decade ago or so, and now all that lending has led to a high default rate, which also hurts stock holders, causes market turmoil and basically makes people panic.

So is gold the answer to that?

Gold can be a wise investment for investors betting against the dollar or worried about long term dollar devaluation, but for the survivalist planning for TEOTWAWKI gold is not the answer. I know, gold prices are soaring and that makes what I’m about to tell you counterintuitive, but the fact remains that survivalists who put their savings into gold are playing a sucker’s bet that will haunt them well after they emerge from whatever apocalyptic scenario they envision.

First things first. Gold is like anything else, it’s only as valuable as long as the demand for it is. Gold prices are soaring in part because of good marketing by gold dealers and affiliate marketers. Many of the sites you’ve recently visited extolling the virtue of gold are what are called M.F.A. websites.

M.F.A. stands for “Made for Adsense” and they’re a powerful money making tool for web marketers. Google’s Adsense program is popular with web marketers because you make money anytime a visitor to your site just clicks an ad; they don’t have to buy anything. Different ads pay different amounts and the best way to guarantee high payouts is to write articles containing keywords that bring up high paying ads.

Guess what term has some high paying Adsense payouts. The payout for just one click can be $1 or more. Compare that to payouts for most subjects, which are often in the pennies per click.

Putting up a site with plenty of content discussing buying gold will bring up high paying ads. Thus site developers have an incentive to put up these sites. As more of the sites crop up, more people link to them, read them and begin internalizing their message, which the developer may or may not even buy into.

If you’re getting your info from a site that looks like this, consider the source.

Consider the message too. Gold sellers want you to believe that all currency is essentially valueless (which in a certain sense it is) but that gold has a value that transcends societal instability or world wide civil unrest. To prove this they point to gold’s wild climb in value, which if anything should prove to you that the gold market is as volatile as any other market.

Gold is only worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it, nothing more, nothing less. Gold popularity stems from its ability to be easily worked into various forms, like rings or bracelets, making it one of the first forms of portable wealth civilization had. If you’ve ever read the old Epic poems like Beowulf or The Niebulungenleid you will find that ancient lords and ladies were called “ring givers” and similar. That’s because gold rings were used as payment to vassals for their loyalty.

But times have changed. People don’t purchase farmland and cattle with a gold earring anymore, and modern money is a state monopoly. There is no way to be 100% sure that after civil unrest or worse, collapse, that people will trade gold at the levels you bought it at, if at all.

Imagine yourself in the closest America had to a TEOTWAWKI scenario, post-Katrina New Orleans. As the days go on and people emerge to trade you grab your trusty gold coins and hit the makeshift market. You plunk down the ounce of pure gold you bought for $800 and change (you bought at a premium) at the table of some enterprising fellow and then … what?

He gives you roughly $800 worth of goods and services for a coin he may or or may not get $800 bucks for when things normalize? He takes your word for it that it’s worth at least $796 or so?

Or he gives you less for it than if you traded in something he could really use?

People are nowhere near as far sighted as you think and unless you live in a community of gold hoarding survivalists, Ron Paul supporters or maybe Ren Festers, the chances of you trading gold coins for services post-TEOTWAWKI and getting anything near their value is a sucker’s bet.

Gold is a good investment in general, though profit wise currency trading seems as good as gold, pardon the pun. But gold isn’t guaranteed to keep its value any more than any other material. As a survivalist I’m all about the guarantee. I use my wealth now to prepare for worst case scenarios by stocking supplies and trade goods. Things like long storing foods, blankets and candles will have value no matter what the situation.

I have no idea, if civilization really collapsed, what the local economy will look like but I think the safest bet is having goods and a set of skills people will pay for. I’m not willing to bet my family’s lives on gold.

After a short term crisis when the banks reopen your gold will be valuable. But so will your check book. Any disaster in which gold would preserve your wealth would probably not be severe enough that having a diverse portfolio would hurt you either. Gold is a good buy, as long the demand keeps the prices going up, but like anything else the bubble will burst eventually.

But that’s just my two cents. Double down on gold if you want, just give me time to set up a site with plenty of Adsense.

The deadly bridge collapse in Minneapolis earlier this month has many people wondering whether they have the skills to survive such a situation. Although vehicle submersion emergencies like the one in Minneapolis don’t often make the national news, such incidents are responsible for approximately 600 deaths each year.

When your car or truck leaves the roadway and plunges into a body of water, it can easily sink in 3 minutes (or significantly less, depending on the weight of the car, length of the drop, angle of impact, and integrity of the door seals.) Because of the speed with which submersion occurs, waiting for first responders to rescue you simply isn’t an option. Instead, advance preparation is key if you hope to escape from your vehicle.

How do you prepare for a situation like this?

Always wear your seatbelt.
Sure, a seatbelt may give you one hell of a bruise on impact, but you’re less likely to experience head trauma if you’re safely strapped into your seat. Remaining conscious gives you a fighting chance if your car is filling with water. Plan to keep your seatbelt on as long as possible to avoid disorientation as the water rushes into the vehicle.

Understand the physics of vehicle submersion.
Once a car begins to sink, the doors and windows cannot be opened due to the immense water pressure. If you are unable to open a door or window before the car starts to sink, you will have to allow enough water into the car to equalize the pressure.This video provides an excellent visual illustration of how the pressure changes as a car becomes completely filled with water:

Make sure you have the necessary tools.
Despite what you see on TV, car windows are nearly impossible to break without a specially designed tool. One highly recommended device is the ResQMe - this ingenious little tool combines a spring loaded window breaker with a razor that can cut through stuck seatbelts. It is inexpensive (just under 10 bucks at Amazon), and is sold as a keychain to help you ensure that you actually have it when you need it.

Other popular options include the BodyGard Multifunction Emergency Tool and the LifeHammer Emergency Hammer. Just remember that windshields (and sometimes side and rear windows) are made from laminated glass that is difficult to break. Check your vehicle handbook to ensure that you have a tool designed to break the windows on your particular car.

Make sure you have the necessary skills.
Have you read the instruction manual for your auto glass breaker? Do you know how to swim?

Plan and rehearse.
Know exactly what steps you will take if your vehicle ends up in the water, always have the necessary tools in your car, and make certain you know how to use those tools. Think about how you will help passengers follow your plan. Practicing these measures, even just going over them in your mind, will help you remain calm, avoid panic, and remember your survival skills when you really need them.

image credit: dubaddict

TEOTWAWKI is an acronym which stands for The End Of The World As We Know It. Most folks agree it was coined in the 1990’s by a guy named Mike Medintz on a survival forum. That’s the short answer.

The long answer is that TEOTWAWKI is both a concept and a bit of an ideology. TEOTWAWKI is literally a society changing, and likely world changing, apocalypse. When a survivalist talks about TEOTWAWKI he or she is talking about a scenario where there is total break down of civil order, where society ceases to exist and anarchy reigns. They may believe that TEOTWAWKI will happen in the context of massive natural disasters, World War III (or really the aftermath of it) or some believe that the world is slowly, inexorably sliding into a new dark ages. No matter how it’s envisioned, from a massive meteor strike to a suicidal conflict between nuclear armed opponents, TEOTWAWKI scenarios imagine the total destruction of our civilized world and the birth of a savage post-apocalyptic wasteland.

As a concept, it is actually quite useful even if you have faith that society can rebound from any disaster, natural or otherwise, because it gives you a standard of preparedness to shoot for that will take you through almost any disaster you can imagine. If you’re prepared to live through the absolute end of the world, a bad hurricane should be a breeze. When you put together a disaster plan, don’t just think about what you’d do in a blackout after a storm, don’t just plan on spending two or three days indoors after a blizzard. Instead imagine a world where you can’t buy groceries or gas, where there is no electric grid and no police force to protect you. Imagine that feeding, clothing, sheltering and protecting yourself and your family was up to you and you alone for an indefinite period of time.

Suddenly a few candles and some canned beets doesn’t seem like such good preparation, huh? That’s why TEOTWAWKI is such a useful concept for anyone wanting to be prepared for whatever life throws at them, because it sets the bar high enough that once you’ve gotten all your gear and plans together, you will literally be ready for anything.

As an ideology, I have mixed feeling about it. The idea of TEOTWAWKI has taken on an almost religious tone amongst some survivalists, and similar to the Y2K panic of the 90’s it’s easy to believe while reading some of the survivalist websites out there that people are not so much preparing for TEOTWAWKI as wishing for it. TEOTWAWKI is the survivalist version of the rapture in some extreme cases, the ultimate punishment met out by the survival gods on those who didn’t prepare for the worst.

But more importantly the TEOTWAWKI scenario envisions a very different kind of America than I do. I have seen community after community pull together after a disaster to help each other, from 9-11 to the big blackout a couple of summers ago, and I don’t see a time when barbarity will rule over us all. Anarchy in the legal sense may take place after some great disaster, but your neighbors and friends will still be your neighbors and friends, and those relationships are the foundation for civilization, and the keys to its survival.

I however am an optimist. I expect the best, but prepare for the worst.